1. Field of the Invention
The present invention relates generally to a process and method for the prediction of the properties of and the optimization of a plant""s output of products from a source or sources of raw material.
More specifically, the present invention relates to a process and method for increasing the predictability and profitability of operations where a series of raw materials are combined and processed into intermediate or final products by optimizing the cost structure of the raw materials, and the output of final or intermediate products to result in the lowest cost materials input and highest value production output.
The present invention also relates to the optimization of refining processes and petroleum blending operation to result in the highest value production output from available fuel stocks.
The present invention also relates to the accurate prediction of final properties of a blended fuel utilizing non-linear optimization and property prediction.
2. Description of the Prior Art
Fuel Additive Industry
It is well known in the petroleum and other industries to maximize profitability by blending fuel stocks with appropriate additives to increase their commercial value. Ethyl Corporation, of Richmond Va. supplies many fuel additives, including a diesel cetane improver known commercially as DII-3(trademark) which is used to raise the cetane level of a diesel fuel stock and thereby make otherwise lower-valued fuel stocks into valuable commercial fuels. MMT (manganese methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl) is a fuel additive, also manufactured by Ethyl Corporation, of Richmond Va., that provides octane enhancement while reducing the amount of crude oil necessary to produce gasoline. Ethyl Corporation additionally manufactures the HiTEC(copyright) 4700 Series of antioxidants, including hindered phenolics and diphenylamines to JP8+100 jet fuel additive which have known effects on the fuel.
Performance fuels for varied applications and engine requirements are known for controlling combustion chamber and intake valve deposits, cleaning port fuel injectors and carburetors, protecting against wear and oxidation, improving lubricity and emissions performance, and ensuring storage stability and cold weather flow.
Fuel detergents, dispersants, corrosion inhibitors, stabilizers, oxidation preventers, and performance additives are known to increase desirable properties of fuels.
It is known that mixtures of fuels and additives can increase and decrease desired properties in a resultant fuel blend.
The present invention contemplates supplying to an end user a tool for the prediction of and the consequent optimization of production from a plant which creates products from available raw materials.
The tool includes an update-able database of incoming raw material properties, preferably including physical properties as well as economic properties, e.g. the cost of those raw materials. The tool also includes a database of blendstock properties, product specifications, processes, and the market price for the final and/or end product. A user can input the available raw material stocks, including their costs and available volumes, and input the standing production orders, including price and minimum acceptable values, and the computing device will determine the accurate properties of the outcoming product and the optimum value to be extracted for a production run based on the available data.
In one embodiment, including by way of example diesel fuel stocks with cetane improver or pour point improvers, a method is disclosed utilizing linear and non linear equations to more accurately predict the cetane number, pour point, and/or other properties of the resulting fuel product.
In another embodiment, the present invention discloses a method of accurately predicting a characteristic of a product to be prepared by a processing plant, by providing an incoming material having at least one measured property, selecting at least one product having a desired characteristic to be prepared from said incoming material by said processing plant, selecting a process to be used by the processing plant to produce the product with its characteristic, and calculating a predicted value of the characteristic of the product utilizing a predictive equation. The predictive equation is a validated non-linear equation generated by regressive analysis of an accumulation of data relating the measured property of the incoming material, the process, and the characteristic of the product.
As used hereinbelow, xe2x80x9creactorxe2x80x9d should be construed in its broadest sense, to include mixing vessels, distillation columns, thermal cracking devices, etc. which may admix, treat, react or otherwise affect a material therein.